It’s that time of year again! The time when we all dutifully tune in to the CMA Awards show, raise our eyebrows at the “What the heck are they doing here?” award presenters, and afterwards complain about how totally un-country the whole show was. I don’t know about the rest of you, but I can’t wait.
We’re pleased to share the Country Universe staff picks for this year’s CMA Awards, as well as our predictions of who the winners will be. This year we have some highly competitive categories in which predicting the winners is quite difficult, leading to some significantly divergent picks among our writing staff. Agree? Disagree? Join in the discussion in the comment thread below, and let us know.
The CMA Awards telecast will air on Wednesday, November 9, 8pm Eastern on ABC-TV. We will be live blogging the show here at Country Universe, so do be sure to drop by and join in the fun!
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win:
- Jason Aldean – Kevin
- Brad Paisley
- Blake Shelton
- Taylor Swift – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Tara
- Keith Urban
Will Win:
- Jason Aldean
- Brad Paisley
- Blake Shelton – Dan, Leeann, Jonathan
- Taylor Swift – Ben, Kevin, Tara
- Keith Urban
Dan: I can imagine anyone but Urban taking it, but I like Jonathan’s logic.
Ben: It’s hard to bet on the Entertainer award going to a female artist, but it seems Swift has undoubtedly had the biggest year of all the nominees. Her album sold like hotcakes, and produced a trio of killer radio singles, while she topped that off with her Speak Now tour. That combination should bag her this year’s top prize.
Leeann: Paisley could take it again, but my money’s on the CMA wanting to give it to fresh blood this year. Taylor Swift is who probably actually deserves it, however.
Jonathan: Paisley is probably the most logical pick, but he didn’t figure as heavily into the nominations this year as he could have, so I’m wondering if the voters have cooled on him as much as the crew here at CU have of late. Swift’s live show should be a factor in this category, but she has a whole lot of gender bias to overcome, and there seems to be at least something of a backlash against her in the country community post-Fearless. Which leaves the ubiquitous Shelton, who has been something of a new “Everywhere Man” for the genre over the past year.
Kevin: I think Swift will win because she had the highest profile year. But I think Aldean defines the genre in 2011, for better or for worse. Mostly worse.
Tara: As I’ve said before, this is the most appropriate way for the voters to reward Swift’s monster success, and for the first time at the CMAs, I truly feel she deserves this award. I’m particularly impressed with the way she continues to cultivate her relationship with her fans. I just hope the voters don’t pair this award with the FVOTY award.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
- Jason Aldean – Dan, Ben
- Kenny Chesney
- Brad Paisley
- Blake Shelton
- Keith Urban – Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
Will Win:
- Jason Aldean – Dan, Ben
- Kenny Chesney
- Brad Paisley
- Blake Shelton – Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
- Keith Urban
Dan: Aldean’s not my thing, but he’s the biggest guy in the field by an unignorable margin. More than anything, I think the indie Broken Bow Records deserves props for building their flagship artist so well.
Ben: I’m largely indifferent to this particular field of nominees (save possibly Keith Urban), but Aldean’s massive success should most likely nab him his first Male Vocalist trophy.
Leeann: Again, I think it’s Shelton’s night to sweep in order to shake things up this year. He and Urban have the strongest voices in the category anyway.
Jonathan: Urban’s the only one of the lot who has released even one single I’ve liked in the past year, so he’d get my vote. Aldean has the commercial clout, sure, but quality has to count for something, right? Voters have looked at the word “Vocalist” in the category name and have passed over Chesney for years, and I wonder if they’ll do the same to Aldean here. I’m thinking yes.
Kevin: Urban’s the one who I can stand to listen to. But if Shelton was able to win last year, I don’t see how he loses this year. Not post-Voice and “Honey Bee.”
Tara: It makes me sad that I can’t find a solid reason to support Urban or Paisley, both of whom I used to feel passionately about. And in all honesty, I can’t find a solid reason to support any of these guys, based on their output during the eligibility period. I’m going to blindly back Urban –who, despite being “Urban-lite” these days, is at least consistent– and predict that Shelton’s amped public profile will give him the edge with voters.
Female Vocalist of the YearShould Win:
- Sara Evans – Kevin
- Miranda Lambert
- Martina McBride
- Taylor Swift – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan
- Carrie Underwood – Tara
Will Win:
- Sara Evans
- Miranda Lambert – Dan, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
- Martina McBride
- Taylor Swift – Ben
- Carrie Underwood
Dan: Come ACM season, I’ll be all for Lambert; Pistol Annies and Four The Record prove she’s using her new commercial powers nobly. But I like Swift’s performances on Speak Now, and that album just applies more to this awards cycle.
Ben: Swift is the overall strongest contender, but I could see voters seizing the opportunity to recognize Evans, who released a new album and had a number one single during the eligibility period. I wouldn’t rule Lambert out either, though she didn’t have as strong a year as she did in 2010. But I doubt this will be Underwood’s year, and McBride’s was essentially a filler nomination, so I’d say it’s down to Swift, Evans, and Lambert. (But, like Dan, I will totally be Team Miranda when the ACMs roll around)
Leeann: I reflexively say Lambert should win, but Swift has had the best year and will likely win as a result. I won’t be heart broken if Lambert takes it though.
Jonathan: There’s a part of me that would vote for Lambert on principle and out of loyalty, but I can’t argue with a simple mathematical inequality: “Back to December,” “Mean,” and “Sparks Fly” > “Only Prettier,” “Heart Like Mine” and “Baggage Claim.” Had her label been campaigning harder that she’s never won this award, Evans could’ve been a bigger threat here, but Lambert’s ongoing momentum should carry her to a repeat win.
Kevin: Can this power couple nonsense be derailed? Probably not, so while I’d rather see Swift get it over Lambert, I’m doubtful it would happen. My real fantasy would be for the only non-winner, Sara Evans, to take it. For prosperity’s sake, and for actually putting out a great single that I failed to realize was great until it was already a hit.
Tara: This is a tough one for me. Lambert’s worked the genre like no other female has this past year and a half, but the singles she’s released in the eligibility period have been so-so. Swift’s put out some solid material, but I’m not sure I’ll ever be able to support her winning a vocalist award. And then there’s Underwood, who’s been relatively quiet on the radio front, but whose stunning performance of “How Great Thou Art” back in April went viral and serves as a reminder of what I firmly believe is one of the finest voices in the genre. I’m going with my gut and backing Underwood, but I think the voters will reward Lambert again, which is fine with me.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win:
- The Civil Wars – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
- Montgomery Gentry
- Steel Magnolia
- Sugarland
- Thompson Square
Will Win:
- The Civil Wars
- Montgomery Gentry
- Steel Magnolia
- Sugarland – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
- Thompson Square
Dan: Seriously, why not the Civil Wars? They’ve sold about as many albums (200,000-ish) as everyone besides Sugarland without the support of a major label. Not to mention they just made the most interesting music.
Ben: I’m supporting the Civil Wars on principle, but it’s a no-brainer that Sugarland’s hot streak is not over yet.
Leeann: I love The Civil Wars. The end.
Jonathan: Yet more evidence that this category should be merged with Vocal Group of the Year to cut the deadweight. Though the Civil Wars getting in instead of the JaneDear Girls is a nice testament to the fact that the CMAs, every so often, can exercise good taste and discretion.
Kevin: Sugarland’s album was atrocious. The Civil Wars are in the running for my favorite set of the year. Easy call for me.
Tara: Can Sugarland hurry up and release a new, redeeming album, please?
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win:
- The Band Perry
- Lady Antebellum
- Little Big Town
- Rascal Flatts
- Zac Brown Band – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
Will Win:
- The Band Perry
- Lady Antebellum – Tara
- Little Big Town
- Rascal Flatts
- Zac Brown Band – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin
Dan: Lady A were between albums. Some variety this year, please.
Ben: It’ hard to bet against Lady Antebellum, but the Zac Brown band gave us a strong album and two of the year’s most memorable hit singles (“As She’s Walking Away” and “Colder Weather”), and I predict that they will be rewarded justly.
Leeann: Zac Brown Band has a good chance with the best music in the category, but Lady A just might not be out yet.
Jonathan: Little Big Town’s brilliant “Little White Church” should’ve put them back in the mix for good, but they really botched the single releases from their album and are right back to being also-rans. The Band Perry will settle for the “New Artist” award as a consolation prize this year, which leaves Lady A and Zac Brown Band to duke it out. In terms of the quality of their output, Zac Brown Band has Lady A dead to rights, but is that enough to stop the trio’s awards-show juggernaut? Let’s hope so.
Kevin: Zac Brown Band is the only option both realistic and palatable.
Tara: This is the first of these categories that I feel strongly about this year. Based on the strength of You Get What You Give, Zac Brown Band deserves to nab this award, hands down. But I’ll go against my co-bloggers here and guess that Lady Antebellum still has the industry wrapped around its finger.
New Artist of the Year
Should Win:
- The Band Perry – Ben
- Luke Bryan
- Eric Church – Leeann, Jonathan
- Thompson Square
- Chris Young – Dan, Kevin, Tara
Will Win:
- The Band Perry – Ben, Jonathan, Tara
- Luke Bryan
- Eric Church – Dan, Leeann, Kevin
- Thompson Square
- Chris Young
Dan: Church seems the most likely to have a long, interesting career and probably deserves the win. I just don’t want to encourage “Homeboy,” I guess.
Ben: Thompson Square and The Band Perry are the only two nominees whom I would still consider “new” artists, and I think The Band Perry beats Thompson Square any day. Bryan, however, did reach a new level of stardom over the past year, so he stands a good chance at wining nonetheless.
Leeann: While it’s strange that with three albums Church is still in the New Artist category, it’s probably that same reason that he should win the award, not to mention that he had the strongest album of the nominees in the past year.
Jonathan: Young’s the best singer in the field, but his material is still too inconsistent in quality for me to get on board with him. Church, on the other hand, finally made good on his early promise and his considerable hype with Chief and would be a deserving winner, as would the uneven but still pretty good The Band Perry. As the only nominee with any other nominations, they have to be considered the slight favorites over Crest WhiteStrips.
Kevin: I think Church’s big breakthrough happened close enough to the voting window to give him a slight edge. I’d like to see Chris Young get the boost from a win.
Tara: Of all the nominees, I’m the most excited for Chris Young’s future in country music – his vocal talent is tremendous, and even though it falls right outside of the eligibility period, Neon is one of my favorite releases of this year. Based on their other major nominations, though, I think The Band Perry will take this.
Album of the Year
Should Win:
- Blake Shelton, All About Tonight
- Jason Aldean, My Kinda Party
- Taylor Swift, Speak Now – Ben, Kevin
- Brad Paisley, This Is Country Music
- Zac Brown Band, You Get What You Give – Dan, Leeann, Jonathan, Tara
Will Win:
- Blake Shelton, All About Tonight
- Jason Aldean, My Kinda Party – Dan, Leeann, Jonathan, Tara
- Taylor Swift, Speak Now – Ben, Kevin
- Brad Paisley, This Is Country Music
- Zac Brown Band, You Get What You Give
Dan: Here’s a logical place to acknowledge Aldean, though I hope voters think twice about it.
Ben: In my book, Swift and the Zac Brown Band are the only truly worthy winners (and I’m still scratching my head over why a Blake Shelton “Six Pak” was even nominated in the first place). To me, the most intriguing thing about Swift is that she really does seem to get a little better and a little deeper with each album. Speak Now is her crowning achievement to date, and in my opinion, the best album on this ballot.
Leeann: It hurts my heart to think it, but Jason Aldean’s big year will likely earn him the award for best album, even though numbers isn’t how such an award should be selected.
Jonathan: Speak Now is Swift’s strongest album, but, “Mean” notwithstanding, it’s also her most unabashedly pop album. And song-for-song, I still think You Get What You Give is slightly better. But Aldean has been a steady seller, and he’s big enough that he has to win one of the major awards, and this one’s his best bet.
Kevin: “All songs composed by Taylor Swift” impressed the heck out of me, not the least of which because the songs were far better than her earlier work. Zac Brown Band’s a close second for me.
Tara: Speak Now is solid, but You Get What You Give is the better example of how to move this genre forward, with its delicious yet reverent mishmash of influences. But I think this is where the voters will recognize the often overlooked commercial success of Jason Aldean.
Single of the Year
Should Win:
- Sara Evans, “A Little Bit Stronger”
- Zac Brown Band, “Colder Weather”- Leeann, Tara
- Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay”
- Blake Shelton, “Honey Bee”
- The Band Perry, “If I Die Young” – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Kevin
Will Win:
- Sara Evans, “A Little Bit Stronger”
- Zac Brown Band, “Colder Weather”
- Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay” – Jonathan, Tara
- Blake Shelton, “Honey Bee” – Kevin
- The Band Perry, “If I Die Young” – Dan, Ben, Leeann
Dan: It’d be heartening to see The Band Perry’s risky, rootsy release get its due. Plus: the single alone is 3x Platinum, better than any of its competitors can claim.
Ben: “Colder Weather” and “If I Die Young” are the two strongest competitors, but for me, a cool folksy arrangement puts the latter over the edge.
Leeann: This is tough. I can actually see any of these singles winning, but I have a good feeling about “If I Die Young”, though I’d love to see “Colder Weather” prove me wrong.
Jonathan: This one’s actually a tough call, since all five of the singles are big radio hits and everyone here has multiple nominations. “If I Die Young” is the best-produced single of the lot, but I’m predicting that Kelly Clarkson’s endless likability gives the edge to her duet with Aldean.
Kevin: Love the Band Perry record most, followed by Sara Evans. But this is the CMA awards, and Shelton managed to be both completely vanilla and namedrop Conway Twitty and Loretta Lynn.
Tara: If I better understood the story in “If I Die Young,” I might be able to get behind it, but I think “Colder Weather” is the more memorable single. It’s my favorite kind of country ballad – killer vocals, gripping melody and palpable emotion. I see the fiery Aldean / Clarkson collaboration taking this one, though. (By the way, dude, “Honey Bee” – really CMA?)
Song of the Year
Should Win:
- “Colder Weather” – Zac Brown, Wyatt Durrette, Levi Lowrey & Coy Bowles
- “Dirt Road Anthem” – Brantley Gilbert & Colt Ford
- “If I Die Young” – Kimberly Perry – Dan, Tara
- “Mean” – Taylor Swift – Jonathan, Kevin
- “You and Tequila” – Matraca Berg & Deana Carter – Ben, Leeann
Will Win:
- “Colder Weather” – Zac Brown, Wyatt Durrette, Levi Lowrey & Coy Bowles
- “Dirt Road Anthem” – Brantley Gilbert & Colt Ford
- “If I Die Young” – Kimberly Perry – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara
- “Mean” – Taylor Swift – Kevin
- “You and Tequila” – Matraca Berg & Deana Carter – Leann
Dan: “If I Die Young” is a flawed composition, but it’s still the most striking and strange one here, and that’s worth something.
Ben: I never though I’d see a CMA Song of the Year field in which Matraca Berg and Deana Carter would compete against Colt Ford and Brantley Gilbert. I would so love to see Berg and Carter win the award. I might tend to be slightly biased when it comes to Matraca Berg, but I think “Tequila” is a fine composition on its own merits, and a worthy winner indeed. Still, my gut predicion is that Perry will grab the trophy instead.
Leeann: “Mean” is probably my favorite song in terms of production and melody, but “You and Tequila” is the best song of the nominees.
Jonathan: Berg is a treasure and I like Carter well enough, so it’s nice to see their names on the ballot again, but “You and Tequila” isn’t either of their best compositions. Here’s the thing about “Mean”: What doesn’t work about the song has everything to do with the fact that it shows the extent to which Swift still hasn’t fully figured out her artistic persona. But in terms of melody and overall construction as a stand-alone song? It’s the class of the field. As Dan said, “If I Die Young” is flawed, but it also has a lot going for it and will be a fine, worthy winner when it inevitably takes this.
Kevin: I love “You and Tequila”, but it’s an old song. I’m glad Chesney rediscovered it, but I can’t see it as this year’s Song of the Year. I think “Mean” is the best of the bunch, with the music as clever as the lyrics.
Musical Event of the Year
Should Win:
- “As She’s Walking Away” – Zac Brown Band featuring Alan Jackson – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
- “Coal Miner’s Daughter” – Loretta Lynn, Sheryl Crow & Miranda Lambert
- “Don’t You Wanna Stay” – Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson
- “Old Alabama” – Brad Paisley with Alabama
- “You and Tequila” – Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter
Will Win:
- “As She’s Walking Away” – Zac Brown Band featuring Alan Jackson – Kevin, Tara
- “Coal Miner’s Daughter” – Loretta Lynn, Sheryl Crow & Miranda Lambert
- “Don’t You Wanna Stay” – Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan
- “Old Alabama” – Brad Paisley with Alabama
- “You and Tequila” – Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter
Dan: The Single nod for Jason and Kelly suggests they have the edge here. But my heart echoes a resounding “Go on, son.”
Ben: “As She’s Walking Away” is just so effortlessly charming that it would easily be my first pick, but the cross-genre appeal – and bonus Clarkson star power – of “Don’t You Wanna Stay” make it the most likely winner. The fact that “Don’t You Wanna Stay” is also nominated for Single (which “As She’s Walking Away” sadly isn’t) suggests a likely victory in this category.
Leeann: How can I not pull for the Zac Brown Band and Alan Jackson when I have a chance? I’m pretty confident that the drama, cross genre appeal, and, yup, the drama again, make “Don’t You Want to Stay” the sure bet though.
Jonathan: “As She’s Walking Away” is one of the purest and truest duets in years, and it could pull some votes from the more traditionalist voters, but the Aldean and Clarkson single just has too much firepower to lose here.
Kevin: If this doesn’t go to Zac Brown Band and Alan Jackson, then I no longer understand how CMA voters think.
Music Video of the Year
Should Win:
- Blake Shelton, “Honey Bee”
- The Band Perry, “If I Die Young” – Dan
- Taylor Swift, “Mean” – Ben, Kevin, Tara
- Brad Paisley featuring Alabama, “Old Alabama”
- Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter, “You and Tequila”
Will Win:
- Blake Shelton, “Honey Bee” – Ben
- The Band Perry, “If I Die Young”
- Taylor Swift, “Mean”
- Brad Paisley featuring Alabama, “Old Alabama” – Dan, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
- Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter, “You and Tequila”
Dan: It’s my least favorite Paisley video ever, though.
Ben: Swift’s “Mean” is my personal favorite among these nominees, but I’m expecting that voters will show some Shelton love instead.
Jonathan: Paisley has to win something, right? And this also gives the voters a chance to honor some beloved genre vets.
Kevin: I think the video splicing tricks will give Paisley and Alabama an additional edge. Of the five clips, “Mean” is the one I like the most.
Musician of the Year
Should Win:
- Paul Franklin (steel guitar) – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
- Dann Huff (guitar)
- Brent Mason (guitar)
- Mac McAnally (guitar)
- Randy Scruggs (guitar)
Will Win:
- Paul Franklin (steel guitar) – Leeann, Jonathan
- Dann Huff (guitar)
- Brent Mason (guitar)
- Mac McAnally (guitar) – Dan, Ben, Kevin, Tara
- Randy Scruggs (guitar)
Dan: Default underdog support.
Ben: I would love to see this go to the steel guitar man (and preferably not to Dann Huff), but Mac McAnally tends to be the favorite here.
Leeann: I want the steel guitar to represent this year. So, I’ll will it to happen.
Jonathan: Franklin’s the only nominee who hasn’t won previously, and being regarded as long overdue eventually helped McAnally score his first win, leading to his current three-year hot streak.
Kevin: I’ll be rooting for Paul Franklin until he finally wins, but I won’t believe that he’ll win until he finally does.
Tara: What Ben and Kevin said.